My bet on global temperature 2017 / meine Bier-Wette für die 2017er Global-Temperaturen

This bet is following an intense discussion on WattsUpWithThat.com.

Here we have four graphs of golbal temperatures from 1979 (begin of satellite observation) to 2014 (before the present ENSO / El Nino Southern Oscillation):




I have no formula, but my observation is like this:

There are a number of periodic natural cycles which influences climate, like the atlantic oscillation (60 years) or <possibly> the sunspot number cycle (11 years), the latter following somthing like connected to with a rubber string. There are also cycles with thousand years and 220 years, but those aren't so visibly in short times observations.

The most prominent is the 60 years AMO cycle.

There are also irregular events like El Nino Southern Oscillation and volcanoes
which are influencing the temperature record. There is also the possibility that several El Nino in a row are pumping the heat up, having no time for sufficient cooling between.

Then we have a possible influence of CO2 of about 1.2°C per doubling. Addidional positive (like watersteam or clouds) feedbacks (up to 4 degrees) or negative feedbacks (up to -1.5°C).

Then there is a possile bias in the temperature records and and a possible willful re-working of the data to fit to a certain purpose.

You see there is a lot of numbers and factors which can influence nearly everthing.

One thing is absolutely sure: It can not be CO2 allone, as the other factors are dominant and surely there.

My bet is like follows:

1. We are at the beginning of a declining AMO wich will lead to a declining temperature the next years.

2. There has been a heat build-up from El Ninos the last 20 years or so, but that will be equalled within about 5 years, provided no other <strong> el Nino is happening.

3. It seems that we are also at the decline of the 220 years cycle, defined by sunspot numbers, which will also lead to some cooling.

4. There seems to be a bias in the surface temperature records from Urban Heat Islands and uneven distributionen of the weather stations, wich has added some tenth of a °C to the record of surface data.

5. Additional some planful upward adjustment seems to have happened by progressive graph makers.

6. Satellite (RSS,UAH) and radiosonde/weatherballoons temperature data seems to be realistic, avoiding UHI and other bias.

7. Using the satellite data and being at the begin of a decline of up to 0.5 degrees within the next decades, i just I am hoping that CO2 has some influence on global temperature, thereby avoiding to freeze off some precious body parts.

The Bet

So I bet one crate (10 liters) of wonderful Franconian* Beer or equivalent (*Franconia is a part of Bavaria) that next year 2017 we will already see a slight decline in overal temperature, coming back to the level of 2014 with RSS/UAH global temperatures. Normally the bet is settled by drinking the beer crate together (and some friends) but depending on how far we are apart we have to do it virtually...

Update some minutes later:
To make the bet more exact: the average of 2017 UAH global temperature will be the same (within two digits after point) or lower than the average of 2014 UAH global temperature.

Here is the UAH graph.



So we need a decline of about 0.2°C from UAH global today to an average 2017 UAH global level.