Sonntag, 11. Dezember 2016

Arctic weather and temperature trends

There are some reports that the arctic is glowing or burning these days.

First of all:

  • The temperatures are still below 0°C.
  • The ice area is still increasing.
  • It is an observation of about one month in climate history
  • 2015/16 we had one of the strongest El Ninos, heating up the atmosphere globally.
So let's check the surface data:

Yes, we have here up to 20°C higher temps than average around the north pole.

But we have also up to 20°C lower temps than average around the south pole, in Siberia and in places in Northeast America and Southamerica. Looks ike local weather patterns.

Let's check the ice extend compared to 9 years before (I just couldn't get oter data than march):

This is a comparision of the same date 2007 and 2016. The red/purple area is the sea ice extend:

No so much difference.

Here a fresh graph from 10th of December about the ice extend during the last years in the Arctic:
The black/red line is from this year.

  • About the same amount of ice during winter than in previous years. 
  • This years lots more of ice in the summer than in 2012 (blue line).
  • And a tiny blip downwards for a short time in this November / December. 
So far about catastrophical melting. Just remember: The arctic sea ice area is still increasing.

Now check the South Pole ice extend:
During Antarctic winter (September) the sea ice was within the normal range. In november a small downblip, but heading back to normal in December. No drama at all.

Something which happens within some weeks is clearly weather.

So we check for the longer trend:

The Arctic sea ice went down considerably the last 37 years.
The Antarctic sea ice had a pretty incline during the same time.

But here is something interesting: For 13 years (Arctic) and for 15years (Antarctic) we have a pause! One nearly zero trend in sea ice for both areas.

And here an overview of global sea ice area:

No big  change in any area of sea ice. Total Global sea ice always close to the 1979-2015 average.

Seems there is always some balancing in any of the Earth's systems.

Keine Kommentare:

Kommentar veröffentlichen