Freitag, 31. Januar 2014

Global Temperature Graphs: Is the temperature rising or even accelerating?

Look: Just a this time at the beginning of 2014 there seems evidence, that the global temperature is steadily rising. A many newspapers and internet magazines showed that graph, which shows clearly that the temperature is rising, isn't it?

It's from NASA. But why do they have another Graph than seen on WFT? NO, it's the same. Just check:

They have put a low basic line, showing few beams or area for the first 25 years. After that the area of beams are increasing, and the three trend lines look like a marker of the rising area. It is not really visible that the rise has stopped for some time. Compare to the graph like it is used on WFT. I have also plotted RSS and WTI for comparison.
So GISTEMP has a steady rise, as it looks. but if you check for the last 12 years, you will see that there is a flatline. The same with WFT with 13 years.

Especially Satellite RSS data (undisturbed by human settlements) have a longer temp pause of neary 17 years.

The question is: Does this matter or not? Or, to ask in another way: Is a period of 12-17 years to be considered a just a short delay, or can it show something about global warming?

Here is another chart which might explain something:

We have here the HADCRUT3 graph starting in 1964. The green line is the amount of sunspots which can be counted from earth by looking through a dark glass (which has been counted for 400 years now. High number of sunspot means high solar activity, which could be radiation, magnetic field or sun wind).

You see a certain pattern with the sunspots and somehow a pattern in the same manner: everytime when the sunspots are low, there is a spike down in temperature, about every 11th year. Just let's look for the years:
  • 1965
  • 1976: less than 0.05°C up from 1965
  • 1988: 0.2°C up within 11 years
  • 1997 (there is already a down-spike around 92/93, but we know about the Mt Pinatubo Vulcan outbreak): again 0.2°C up from 1988
  • 2009: 0.15°C up from 1997
  • next down-spike would be around 2020, so what will bring the future? We can already see a very low solar activity, could mean that the temperature will stay down as well.

There are about 3 up-spikes during every sunspot cycle. Maybe we could get the average of every triple:

  • The average of 1965-1977 is -0.125
  • The average of 1977-1986 is 0 (0.125 higher)
  • The average of 1986-1996 is 0.15 (0.15 higher) note that we have herein the Mt Pinatubo outbreak
  • The average of 1996- 2008 is 0.4 ( 0. 25 higher) note that the 1998 El Nino high is included.
  • The average of the half cycle from 2008 is 0.4

If we try to equalize Mt Pinatubo and El Nino we could come to a half sinus wave:

0.125 - 0.2 - 0.2 - 0.1 , in total 0.525 like today. If that is true, the present half cycle is the top of that sinus wave.

This is just an idea. We can only come closer to reality, if we look for former solar cycles and how they behaved, or how the temperature worked out then.

What we have found out up to now is:

  • Temperature is following the solar cycles (sunspot numbers) of about 11 years.
  • There seems to be another bigger cycle, roughly like a sinus wave of about 60 years , on which the temperature/solar cycles are going up and down.
  • The last two Sunspot cycle temperature trends are on the same level, but the last one is not finished, we may find out in few years if the temperature will go up again or is declining, following the cycle.

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