Montag, 3. Februar 2014

Cherrypicking simplyfied

Just an update for the previous post:

There is a more simple way for averaging patterns (like the influence of sunspots). I added a 132 months average (11 years). This means at every spot of the graph all neighboring data (5.5 years to the left and 5.5 years to the right) are averaged. This also means that the graph will stop 5.5 years from the beginning or the end. And voila, the curve is the same as with our method in the previous post to measure at the same slope of a pattern.

As I said in the previous post, the top of the curve is about 2003, and our last point of observation of a 11 years pattern is 2008. From 2003 to 2005 is only 5 years. This downtrend, even averaged, is somehow too short for a long time forecast. But anyway, the sharp acceleration of the the 1975-2000 period has stopped and the warming even halted - for the moment.

Note: I gave the running average graph (pale lilac) an offset of 0.2°C to get it out of the mess of all the trend lines.

Update II: 

Having learned how to double and triple smoother a curve, I tried it as well on this graph:

We learned from Judith Curry's Blog that on the top of a single smothered curve a trough appears. So the dent at 2004 seems to be the center of the 132 month's smothered wave. I double smothered the curve and reached 2004 as well, now eliminating the dent.

Note: Each smothering cuts away the end of the graph by half of the smothering span. So with every smothering the curve gets shorter. But even the not visible data are already in the visible curve.

According to the data, after removing all the "noise" (especially the 11 year's sun activity cycle) 2004 was the very top of the 60 years sine wave and we are progressing downwards now for 10 years.

If you are not aware about the 60 years cycle, I just have used HADCRUT4 and smothered the 11 years sunspot activity, which influences the temperature in a significant way.

We can clearly see the tops and bottoms of the wave at about 1880, 1910, 1940, 1970, and 2000. If this pattern repeats, the we will have 20 more years going down - more or less steep. Ten years of the 30 year down slope are already gone.

Keine Kommentare:

Kommentar veröffentlichen