Sonntag, 9. Februar 2014

Another Long-term trend from Uppsala, Sweden, starting 1722

From:

http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/temperatur/1.2855


We see one of the longest temperature records: Uppsala, Sweden. The data were not always available in the 1700ths , so some have been reconstructed. About 300years ago, in Sweden it was nearly as warm as today, it seems.


And this seem to be longest instrumental record without any pause in Europe:



And here for the first time on this page I show a non instrumental and none-tree ring proxy chart, just to show the larger picture.

My "Cherry Picking" on WUWT

Anthony Watts on Wattsupwiththat.com has posted my Cherry Picking Post on his Website.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/07/proper-cherry-picking/

Up to now 264 comments. Never had this much before.

Dienstag, 4. Februar 2014

Proper cherry picking

There is a much discussed graph in the blogosphere from Tamino, which shall approve that there is no delay  or pause or decline in global warming. Its from:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/global-temperature-the-post-1998-surprise/

He states: Twelve of sixteen were hotter than expected even according to the still-warming prediction, and all sixteen were above the no-warming prediction:

HadCRUT4

Let get a larger picture:



  • We see the red HADCRUT4 graph, coming downwards a bit from 1960 to 1975, and inclining steeper beyond 2000, with a slight drop of about the last 10 years.
  • We see a blue trend, rising at the alarming rate of 0.4°C within only one decade! This was the time when some scientists started to worry about global warming.
  • We see the green trend, used by the blogger Palmino in the first graphic, rising less than 0.1°C per decade.
  • Below we see the Sunspot Numbers, pulsing in a frequency of about 11 years. Comparing it with the red temperature graph, we see the same pattern of 11 years pulsing. It shows clear evidence that temperature is linked to the sunspot activity.
Tamino started his trend at high sun activity and it stopped at low activity. Therefore the weak increase during 18 years.

Which leads us to the question: How long should a time be for observing climate change? If we look at the sunspot activity and the clear pattern it produces in the temperature graph, the answer is: 11 years or a multiple of it.

Or we can measure from any point of:

  • high sun activity to one of the following
  • low sun activity to one of the following
  • rising sun activity to one of the following
  • declining sun activity to one of the following
to eliminate the pattern of sunspot numbers.

Let's try it out:


The last point of observation of the trend is between 2003 and 2014, about 2008. But even here we can see the trend has changed.

We do not know about the future. An downward trend seems possible, but a sharp rise is predicted from some others, which would destroy our musings so far.

Just being curious: How would the graph look with satellite data? Let's check RSS.


Really interesting. The top of both graph appears to be at 2003 or 2004. HADCRUT4 shows a 0.05°C decline, RSS a 0.1°C per decade.

A simple way for smoothing a curve

There is a more simple way for averaging patterns (like the influence of sunspots). I added a 132 months average (11 years). This means at every spot of the graph all neighboring data (5.5 years to the left and 5.5 years to the right) are averaged. This also means that the graph will stop 5.5 years from the beginning or the end. And voila, the curve is the same as with our method in the previous post to measure at the same slope of a pattern.

As I said before the top of the curve is about 2003, and our last point of observation of a 11 years pattern is 2008. From 2008 to 2003 is only 5 years. This downtrend, even averaged, is somehow too short for a long time forecast. But anyway, the sharp acceleration of the the 1975-2000 period has stopped and the warming even halted - for the moment.


Note: I gave the running average graph (pale lilac) an offset of 0.2°C to get it out of the mess of all the trend lines.

If Tamino would have smoothed the 11 years sun influence of the temperature graph before plotting the trend like done here at WFT, his green trend would be would be the same incline like the blue 33 year trend:


Even smoother

Having learned how to double and triple smooth a curve, I tried it as well on this graph:


We learned from Judith Curry's Blog that on the top of a single smoothed curve a trough appears. So the dent at 2004 seems to be the center of the 132 month's smoothed wave. I double smoothed the curve and reached 2004 as well, now eliminating the dent.

Note: Each smoothing cuts away the end of the graph by half of the smoothing span. So with every smoothing the curve gets shorter. But even the not visible data are already included in the visible curve.

According to the data, after removing all the "noise" (especially the 11 year's sun activity cycle) 2004 was the very top of the 60 years sine wave and we are progressing downwards now for 10 years.

If you are not aware about the 60 years cycle, I just have used HADCRUT4 and smoothed the 11 years sunspot activity, which influences the temperature in a significant way.


We can clearly see the tops and bottoms of the wave at about 1880, 1910, 1940, 1970, and 2000. If this pattern repeats, the we will have 20 more years going down - more or less steep. About ten years of the 30 year down slope are already gone.

One more pattern

There is also a double bump visible at the downward slopes of about 10/10 years up and down. By looking closer you will see a hunch of it even at the upward slope. If we are  now at the beginning of the downward slope - which could last 30 years - we could experience these bumps as well.

Going back further

Unfortunately we have no global temperature records before 1850. But we have one from a single station in Germany. The Hohenpeissenberg in Bavaria, not influenced from ocean winds or towns.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Temperaturreihe_Hoher_Pei%C3%9Fenberg.PNG



Sure, it's only one single Station, but the measurements were continuously with no pause, and we can get somehow an idea by looking at the whole picture. Not in terms of 100% perfection, but just seeing the trends. The global climate surely had it's influence here as well.

What we see is a short upward trend of about ten years, a downward slope of 100 years of about 1°C, an upward trend for another 100 years, and about 10 years going slightly down. Looks like an about 200 years wave. We can't see far at both sides of the curve, but if this Pattern is repeating, this would only mean: We are now on the downward slope.  Possibly for the next hundred years, if there is nothing additional at work.

The article of Greg Goodman about mean smoothers can be read here:
http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/22/data-corruption-by-running-mean-smoothers/

Montag, 3. Februar 2014

Looking behind the noise: Dealing with pattern

If we recognize a pattern in a curve we can try to smoothen or eliminate it. Simply like this: If there is a ten years pattern, we just run curve with a ten years running average. Which means: A ten years running average takes the average five year left and right of every point of the original curve. Let's do it with the HADCRUT4, trying to smoothen the 11years (132 month) sunspot pattern:


It works somehow, but the pattern is still somehow zigzagging. And it produces small troughs at the top of each wave. Check at about 1880, 1910, 1940, 1970, 2000. You don't see where the top of the wave really is.

Specialists suggest a triple smoothing. Which works like this:
Divide the original smoother by 1.3371, and then again by 1.3371.

Here we go:
132 months/1.3371= 98.72 ergo 99 months
132 months/1.3371/1.3371=73.84, ergo 74 months
 And voila!


Rrrreally smoooth!

And now we can see clearly another pattern of 30 years up and down:1880 up, 1910 down, 1940 up, 1970 down, 2000 up.

What will happen, if we smoother this 60 years pattern?



Impressive thing! A wave with a low about 1885 and a high at 2003? as we know from our research in the former posts. Means this a 220 years (110 up/110 down) wave? Or is part of this man made warming? But the temperature curves are not long enough for this. For this we would need to look at proxy data. (Sediments, tree rings, etc.)

The red line was a fail. I tried triple smoothing and I cut off nearly everything. But even the green line is missing 30 years on both ends. This is the sacrifice form smoothing.

Now we go back to the original graph and do only some fine smoothing. Just lets get rid of the yearly fluctuation by triple smoothing with 12/9/7 months:



What can be seen are a lot of spikes, each about 2-4 years long. Is there something behind it? Lets take a closer look.



As you see, each sunspot cycle has three larger temperature spikes. I just try to smoother them.
132 months/3=44 months



Hmm, like expected: Having removed the three years pattern, the influence of the sunspots to the temperature is even better visible. In the 1987 to 1998 SS cycle the Mt Pinatubo Vulcan could have dampened and in the 1998-2009 SS cycle the influence of the El Nino is somehow visible.

Note: Triple smothered curves may have a certain advance or delay in the timescale.

Having done our pattern exercises, we found patterns like following: 44 months, 11 years, 60 years and possibly 220 years. We do not yet know from all of them what's behind them. But it seems that not only greenhouse gasses are related to the temperature.

Cherrypicking simplyfied

Just an update for the previous post:

There is a more simple way for averaging patterns (like the influence of sunspots). I added a 132 months average (11 years). This means at every spot of the graph all neighboring data (5.5 years to the left and 5.5 years to the right) are averaged. This also means that the graph will stop 5.5 years from the beginning or the end. And voila, the curve is the same as with our method in the previous post to measure at the same slope of a pattern.

As I said in the previous post, the top of the curve is about 2003, and our last point of observation of a 11 years pattern is 2008. From 2003 to 2005 is only 5 years. This downtrend, even averaged, is somehow too short for a long time forecast. But anyway, the sharp acceleration of the the 1975-2000 period has stopped and the warming even halted - for the moment.



Note: I gave the running average graph (pale lilac) an offset of 0.2°C to get it out of the mess of all the trend lines.

Update II: 

Having learned how to double and triple smoother a curve, I tried it as well on this graph:



We learned from Judith Curry's Blog that on the top of a single smothered curve a trough appears. So the dent at 2004 seems to be the center of the 132 month's smothered wave. I double smothered the curve and reached 2004 as well, now eliminating the dent.

Note: Each smothering cuts away the end of the graph by half of the smothering span. So with every smothering the curve gets shorter. But even the not visible data are already in the visible curve.

According to the data, after removing all the "noise" (especially the 11 year's sun activity cycle) 2004 was the very top of the 60 years sine wave and we are progressing downwards now for 10 years.

If you are not aware about the 60 years cycle, I just have used HADCRUT4 and smothered the 11 years sunspot activity, which influences the temperature in a significant way.



We can clearly see the tops and bottoms of the wave at about 1880, 1910, 1940, 1970, and 2000. If this pattern repeats, the we will have 20 more years going down - more or less steep. Ten years of the 30 year down slope are already gone.

How to: Proper cherry picking

There is a much discussed graph in the blogosphere, which shall approve, that there is no delay  or pause or decline in global warming. Its from:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/global-temperature-the-post-1998-surprise/

He states: Twelve of sixteen were hotter than expected even according to the still-warming prediction, and all sixteen were above the no-warming prediction:

HadCRUT4

Let get a larger picture:




  • We see the red HADCRUT4 graph, coming downwards a bit from 1960 to 1975, and inclining steeper beyond 2000, with a slight drop of about the last 10 years.
  • We see a blue trend, rising at the alarming rate of 0.4°C within only one decade! This was the time when some scientists started to worry about global warming.
  • We see the green trend, used by the blogger Palmino in the first graphic, rising less than 0.1°C per decade.
  • Below we see the Sunspot Numbers, pulsing in a frequency of about 11 years. Comparing it with the red temperature graph, we see the same pattern of 11 years pulsing. It shows clear evidence that temperature is linked to the sunspot activity.
Palmino started his trend at high sun activity and it stopped at low activity. Therefore the weak increase during 18 years.

Which leads us to my question of a former post: How long should a time be a time for observing climate change? If we only look at the sunspot activity and the clear pattern it produces in the temperature graph, the answer is: 11 years or a multiple of it.

Or we can measure from any point of:

  • high sun activity to one of the following
  • low sun activity to one of the following
  • rising sun activity to one of the following
  • declining sun activity to one of the following
To eliminate the pattern of sunspot numbers.

Let's try it out:


The last point of observation of the trend is between 2003 and 2014, about 2008. But even here we can see the trend has changed.

We do not know about the future. An downward trend seems possible, but a sharp rise is predicted from some others, which would destroy our musings so far.

Just being curious: How would the graph look with satellite data? Let's check RSS.


Really interesting. The top of both graph appears about 2003. HADCRUT4 shows a 0.05°C decline, RSS a 0.1°C per decade.

Sonntag, 2. Februar 2014

Design your own climate graphs!

Possibly you are a bit impressed about the graph some people (plus me) are able to draw. I`t not a big issue. just go to

http://www.woodfortrees.org/examples

and see how it's done.

Deeper insights you may get at the tutional page

http://www.woodfortrees.org/help

Soon you will able to understand even very complicated graphs like this:



But even I don't know what's going on here... But we will find out.

Cooling or warming?

We have seen that land reacts quicker to heating and cooling than sea.

Temperature curves show somehow a temperature flat. Just lets try out if the sluggish ocean is still heating up global temp, the temperature is stagnant or on the decline.



We see, both temperatures, of the sea plus the lower troposphere over land are both declining - the land temperature a bit more than the sluggish reacting sea. Looks as if we are over the peak and going downwards.

Sea or land, who is the leader?

Sea surface temperature or land temperature. Which one is the leader?



The Sea surface temperature (red) is leading with some months. The land temperature (green) follows, making higer spikes.

Possible explanations:

  • The oceans have two thirds of the Earth's surface, and can store more heat than land surface. 
  • Land surface heats quicker and cools quicker as well.
  • Land surface is heated up by direct insolation from the sunlight plus redirected ocean heat, trapped by the air. The warm air is moved by the winds over the land, where it reduces cooling of the land mass.
Note: I choose a time where temperatures were somehow flat, for easy comparision of both curves. But you can make the test elsewhere, is always the land following.